Casey's judgement questions are built from claims that sound right. Most are close to true. The point is the one word that makes them unprovable: “will”, “always”, “more likely”, “more clients”.
This lesson is a habit for those questions: turn each claim into the number that would prove it, then look for that number.
The method, in 4 steps
Turn the claim into a test
What would the exhibit have to show for this to be true?
Find that number
If the exhibit shows the opposite, the claim fails. If it doesn't show anything at that level of detail, the claim fails too.
Mind the summary statistic
A median tells you about the middle client. It can't count clients, and it can't promise what any one client gets.
Flip at the end
In a "which can you NOT conclude" question, you select the claims that failed.
Worked example
Union Commercial Bank, question 4
Example · practice contentPlay the free case first (40 min)
The exhibit groups UCB's clients by probability-of-default (PD) category and shows the spread of interest rates in each. The values the case's answer key quotes:
| PD category | 25th pct | Median | 75th pct | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PD 0 (43 clients) | – | 3.14% | – | – |
| PD 1 (37 clients) | – | 3.12% | – | – |
| PD 3 | 5.20% | 6.22% | 6.69% | 7.56% |
| PD 5 | 5.20% | 5.90% | 6.10% | 6.40% |
| PD 7 | – | 7.24% | – | – |
| PD 8 | – | 6.33% | – | – |
Overall, rates run from 0.45% to 13.72%. “–” = not quoted here; the full exhibit is in the case.
Based on the data, which conclusions can you NOT draw? Select all that apply.
Show the workingTry it first. The method, step by step, then the answer.
- ATest: lower PD always priced lower. The exhibit: PD 5's median (5.90%) sits below PD 3's (6.22%), and PD 8's (6.33%) below PD 7's (7.24%). Fails.
- BTest: wide spread. The exhibit: 0.45% to 13.72% overall, and up to about 6 points inside one category. Proven.
- CTest: PD 3 cheaper than PD 5. The exhibit shows the opposite at every level: median, 75th percentile and max are all higher for PD 3. Fails.
- DTest: a count of clients at or under 3.14%. About half of PD 0's 43 clients are, by its median. For PD 1 we only know at least about 18 of 37; how many sit between 3.12% and 3.14% isn't shown. Fails: no number.
- FlipThe question asks what you can NOT draw: the three that failed.
Answer A, C and D can't be drawn. B can.
Recap · Lesson 02
Pause here
- Name the number: Every claim needs one. Find it or drop the claim.
- Opposite or silent both fail: Not shown is as fatal as contradicted.
- Medians don't count heads: They describe the middle, not how many, and not any one client.
Tonight · free20 min
A free chart drill
Before each answer, say the number that proves it. If you can't, that option is out.
Open it freeSources2 numbered sources, labeled by type
- DrillCase guide DrillCase: BCG Casey online case, the complete guide: last verified 23 Sep 2026.
- DrillCase guide DrillCase: Union Commercial Bank, the free Casey-style demo case: question text and answer key.
Independent practice. Not affiliated with BCG.