Problem Definition
ProLeague is the premier professional basketball league in a mid-sized Western European country, comprising 16 teams with combined annual revenue of approximately EUR 320 million. The league has enjoyed modest total revenue growth over the past five years, driven primarily by sponsorship increases, but faces a troubling structural shift: matchday attendance has declined roughly 4% per year, and the average fan age has risen from 38 to 47 over the past decade. The under-25 fan segment has shrunk from 22% to just 9% of the total fan base.
The league's current media rights deal, worth EUR 75 million per year, expires in 18 months. The incumbent broadcaster, EuroSport Media, has offered a renewal at EUR 85 million per year for five years. Two additional offers have emerged from streaming-oriented bidders: DAZN has proposed a streaming-first deal at EUR 110 million per year, and a hybrid bid from EuroSport Media paired with Amazon Prime Video totals EUR 95 million per year. The streaming offers carry significantly higher headline values but include performance clauses tied to minimum viewership thresholds that could reduce payouts.
The stakes are high: media rights represent the second-largest revenue source after sponsorship, and the deal signed now will lock in the league's distribution model through 2032. Several team owners are pushing for the highest guaranteed number to stabilize club finances, while others argue the league must prioritize digital reach to remain relevant with younger audiences. The commissioner is caught between short-term financial certainty and long-term strategic positioning.
The league commissioner has engaged your firm to evaluate the three offers and recommend a media rights strategy that maximizes long-term league value. Given the trade-offs between guaranteed revenue, growth potential, and the demographic trajectory of the fan base, which media rights structure should ProLeague pursue, and what complementary actions should accompany the deal?
Additional InformationAsk for more dataHide data
Provide the following when the candidate asks relevant questions or after they present their framework:
The Three Offers:
- Offer A — EuroSport Media (Broadcast): EUR 85M/year, 5-year term. Fully guaranteed with no performance clauses. Exclusive domestic broadcast rights. League retains digital clip rights and international sales.
- Offer B — DAZN (Streaming-First): EUR 110M/year headline, 5-year term. Guaranteed base of EUR 30M covering international floor and minimum commitments. Remaining EUR 80M tied to streaming performance. Performance clause: if average concurrent viewers per match fall below 400,000, the streaming portion is reduced by 30%. Exclusive global rights (domestic and international).
- Offer C — EuroSport + Amazon (Hybrid): EUR 95M/year, 5-year term. EuroSport pays EUR 55M for domestic broadcast (fully guaranteed). Amazon pays EUR 40M for domestic streaming and international rights. Performance clause on the Amazon portion only: if average streaming viewers per match fall below 250,000, the Amazon portion is reduced by 30%.
Current Streaming Metrics:
- Average concurrent streaming viewers per match: 180,000
- Year-over-year streaming viewership growth: approximately 15%
- 72% of current streaming viewers are aged 25-44
Current Media Revenue Composition (within the EUR 75M deal):
- Domestic broadcast allocation: approximately EUR 52M
- Digital and streaming allocation: approximately EUR 10M
- International distribution: approximately EUR 13M
Fan Engagement Data:
- Social media followers: 4.2 million (growing 8%/year)
- Average TV broadcast viewership per match: 1.1 million (declining 3%/year)
- Season ticket holders: 142,000 (declining 5%/year)
Stakeholder Context:
- 10 of 16 team owners favor Offer A for revenue certainty; 4 favor Offer B for maximum upside; 2 favor Offer C as a compromise
Question 1Structuring
Prompt: "The commissioner wants to understand how to think about this decision systematically. How would you structure your analysis of ProLeague's media rights options?"
Hint · Structuring
Build 3–4 branches that are specific to this client and question, not a generic framework. Check they don't overlap and together cover the problem.
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A structured approach would cover four areas:
- Deal Economics — Headline value, guaranteed floor, expected value under different viewership scenarios, and total 5-year payout range for each offer
- Viewership Risk — Current streaming metrics, growth trajectory, probability of hitting each performance threshold, and demographic headwinds that could dampen growth
- Strategic Positioning — Impact on future negotiating leverage, data ownership, fan accessibility across age groups, and league brand modernization
- Ecosystem Effects — How each deal structure influences sponsorship value, merchandise reach, international expansion, and the league's ability to build direct-to-consumer capabilities
What the interviewer is looking forShow guidanceHide guidance
Let the candidate build their own framework. Redirect if they default to a generic profitability tree or Porter's Five Forces. This is a strategic deal evaluation under uncertainty, not a market entry or cost optimization case.
Good: Identifies three to four key dimensions such as financial comparison of the offers, risk assessment of performance clauses, fan and viewership trends, and competitive positioning among bidders. Treats this as a deal evaluation rather than forcing a textbook framework.
Strong: Adds a time dimension, separating the immediate deal economics (5-year contract value) from the long-term strategic implications (what position does each deal create for the NEXT negotiation). Recognizes that performance clauses create downside risk that must be quantified. Connects the aging fan base to streaming viewership projections rather than treating demographics as a separate workstream.
Excellent: Frames the analysis as a two-layer problem. Layer one: which deal maximizes risk-adjusted value over the 5-year term? Layer two: which deal best positions the league for the next negotiation in 2032? Identifies that today's choice shapes future bargaining power. A streaming-first deal that succeeds builds a digital audience and viewer data asset, while a broadcast deal preserves the status quo but does nothing to address demographic decline. Considers second-order effects on sponsorship revenue, noting that sponsors pay for reach and demographic profile, and the choice of media partner directly influences both.
Question 2Numeracy
Prompt: "Let us quantify the options. Can you calculate the expected 5-year payout for each offer, assuming current streaming viewership trends continue?"
Hint · Numeracy
Write the formula before you plug in numbers, keep units and zeros explicit, and sanity-check the order of magnitude at the end.
Share Exhibits 1 and 3 if not already provided. Confirm the current streaming viewership of 180K average concurrent viewers and the 15% annual growth rate when the candidate asks.
Exhibit 1ProLeague Revenue by Source (EUR M)
| Source | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 (est.) | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchday revenue | 108 | 104 | 100 | 96 | 92 | -4.0% |
| Media rights (total) | 70 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | +1.7% |
| Sponsorship | 72 | 78 | 84 | 90 | 96 | +7.4% |
| Commercial / merchandise | 42 | 44 | 47 | 52 | 57 | +7.9% |
| Total | 292 | 298 | 304 | 312 | 320 | +2.3% |
Note: Media rights shown as total contractual value. Internal allocation has shifted from approximately 83% domestic broadcast in 2021-22 to 69% in 2025-26, with digital and international shares growing.
Source: ProLeague case file
Exhibit 3Comparable European Sports Media Deals
| League | Sport | Annual Value (EUR M) | Term | Model | Performance Clause | Actual Payout (% of Headline) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga ACB (Spain) | Basketball | 35 | 5 yr | Broadcast | None | 100% |
| Turkish BSL | Basketball | 40 | 5 yr | Broadcast | None | 100% |
| LNB Pro A (France) | Basketball | 28 | 4 yr | Hybrid | None | 100% |
| Serie A Basket (Italy) | Basketball | 22 | 3 yr | Streaming | Min 350K viewers, -30% | 70% |
| Handball-Bundesliga | Handball | 50 | 4 yr | Hybrid | Min 200K viewers, -25% | 100% |
| EuroLeague | Basketball | 90 | 6 yr | Hybrid | None | 100% |
Note: Serie A Basket signed a streaming-first deal in 2023 at a 40% premium over its prior broadcast contract. The league's average streaming viewership of 280K fell short of the 350K contractual minimum, triggering the 30% reduction clause for all three years of the deal. The league has since indicated it will return to a hybrid model.
Source: ProLeague case file
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Calculation
Step 1: Project streaming viewership over 5 years at 15% annual growth
| Year | Avg. Streaming Viewers (K) | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 207 | 180 x 1.15 |
| 2 | 238 | 207 x 1.15 |
| 3 | 274 | 238 x 1.15 |
| 4 | 315 | 274 x 1.15 |
| 5 | 362 | 315 x 1.15 |
Step 2: Evaluate performance clauses against thresholds
| Year | Viewers (K) | Offer B: 400K Threshold | Offer C: 250K Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 207 | Miss | Miss |
| 2 | 238 | Miss | Miss |
| 3 | 274 | Miss | Exceed |
| 4 | 315 | Miss | Exceed |
| 5 | 362 | Miss | Exceed |
Step 3: Calculate annual payouts and 5-year totals
Offer A (Broadcast) — fully guaranteed:
| Component | Annual (EUR M) | 5-Year Total (EUR M) |
|---|---|---|
| Guaranteed broadcast | 85 | 425 |
| Total | 85 | 425 |
Offer B (DAZN) — clause triggered all 5 years:
Streaming portion reduced: EUR 80M x 0.70 = EUR 56M per year.
| Component | Annual (EUR M) | 5-Year Total (EUR M) |
|---|---|---|
| Guaranteed base | 30 | 150 |
| Streaming (reduced) | 56 | 280 |
| Total | 86 | 430 |
Offer C (Hybrid) — clause triggered Years 1-2 only:
| Component | Yr 1-2 Annual (EUR M) | Yr 3-5 Annual (EUR M) |
|---|---|---|
| Broadcast (guaranteed) | 55 | 55 |
| Streaming (Amazon) | 28 (= 40 x 0.70) | 40 |
| Annual total | 83 | 95 |
| Period | Annual (EUR M) | Years | Subtotal (EUR M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Years 1-2 (clause triggered) | 83 | 2 | 166 |
| Years 3-5 (full payout) | 95 | 3 | 285 |
| 5-Year Total | 451 |
Summary comparison:
| Offer | Headline Total (EUR M) | Expected Payout (EUR M) | Discount vs. Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| A — Broadcast | 425 | 425 | 0% |
| B — DAZN | 550 | 430 | 22% |
| C — Hybrid | 475 | 451 | 5% |
What the interviewer is looking forShow guidanceHide guidance
Good: Correctly projects the 5-year viewership trajectory and identifies that Offer B never reaches the 400K threshold. Arrives at the basic payout comparison showing Offer C as the highest expected value.
Strong: Highlights that Offer B, despite a EUR 550M headline, delivers only EUR 5M more than the fully guaranteed Offer A over five years, effectively erasing the supposed premium. Identifies that Offer C is the clear winner on expected value at EUR 451M.
Excellent: Stress-tests the 15% growth assumption. Notes that the aging fan base (Exhibit 2) could depress streaming growth. At 10% growth, viewership reaches only approximately 290K by Year 5, meaning the 250K threshold in Offer C is not exceeded until Year 4. This would reduce Offer C's total to roughly EUR 439M (Years 1-3 at EUR 83M = EUR 249M, Years 4-5 at EUR 95M = EUR 190M). Also observes that Offer B's exclusive global rights clause forfeits the league's ability to sell international rights separately, which Exhibit 1 shows have been growing steadily.
Question 3Judgement & Insights
Prompt: "Looking at Exhibits 1 and 2, the commissioner is also considering investing EUR 15 million per year in a 'Next Gen' fan development program targeting 16-to-24-year-olds. How does this investment interact with the media rights decision, and is it worth the cost?"
Hint · Judgement & Insights
Read the exhibit title, axes and units first. Lead with the ‘so what’, then back it with one or two numbers.
Share all three exhibits. Allow the candidate time to study them before responding.
Exhibit 2ProLeague Fan Age Distribution (%)
| Age Group | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 9 |
| 25-34 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 14 |
| 35-44 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 21 |
| 45-54 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 28 |
| 55+ | 16 | 19 | 24 | 28 |
| Avg. age | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
Source: ProLeague case file
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Key Exhibit Observations for This Question
Candidates should identify at least two of the following from the exhibits without prompting:
- Exhibit 1: Sponsorship has grown from EUR 72M to EUR 96M despite declining matchday attendance. This suggests sponsors are currently paying for brand association and broadcast reach rather than in-venue exposure. But if the fan base continues aging and shrinking, broadcast viewership will follow the same decline path as attendance, eroding the sponsorship value proposition within 3-5 years.
- Exhibit 2: The 16-24 cohort declined 13 percentage points in a decade (22% to 9%). At this rate, the segment approaches zero by 2030, meaning the league faces a generational extinction event in its fan pipeline.
- Exhibit 3: Serie A Basket attempted to solve a similar problem through a streaming deal alone and achieved only 70% of headline value. Distribution change did not solve the underlying demand problem.
The Next Gen investment is strategically essential and must be sequenced alongside the media deal. If ProLeague signs Offer C, the EUR 15M annual spend is justified because it directly de-risks the Amazon streaming component. Converting even a portion of the 16-24 demographic from 9% back toward 14-15% could add 40,000 to 60,000 regular streaming viewers, which is meaningful progress toward the 250K threshold and reduces the probability of triggering the clause in Years 1 and 2. However, the investment should be partially funded from the media rights uplift (EUR 451M expected versus EUR 375M under the current deal) rather than treated as pure incremental cost. The league should also negotiate with Amazon to co-fund fan development initiatives, aligning incentives around the viewership targets both parties need to reach. Finally, the investment protects the sponsorship revenue base, which at EUR 96M is larger than any single media deal offer and depends on the league maintaining an attractive demographic profile.
What the interviewer is looking forShow guidanceHide guidance
This question tests whether candidates can connect two seemingly separate problems — fan demographics and deal structure — into a unified strategic argument. Watch for candidates who treat the Next Gen investment as a standalone marketing question divorced from the media rights negotiation.
Good: Recognizes that younger fans are more likely to be streaming viewers, so the investment supports hitting viewership thresholds in the streaming components. Calculates the basic cost: EUR 15M/year over 5 years = EUR 75M, and compares it to the incremental value of hitting performance targets.
Strong: Identifies the three-level insight cascade:
- Level 1 (Surface): The under-25 segment has collapsed from 22% to 9% over a decade. The league is losing its pipeline of future fans.
- Level 2 (Implication): Without young fans, streaming viewership growth will plateau or reverse, making all future streaming deals structurally risky, not just this one.
- Level 3 (Actionable): The EUR 15M investment is not a marketing expense. It is a prerequisite for any streaming-oriented media strategy. The question is not whether to invest, but how to time and fund it relative to the media deal.
Excellent: Spots the hidden insight in Exhibit 1. Sponsorship revenue has grown from EUR 72M to EUR 96M (approximately 7% annually) despite declining attendance and an aging audience. This growth rate is unsustainable. Sponsors pay for reach and demographic value, and the current trajectory will eventually erode sponsorship pricing power. The Next Gen program therefore protects not only future media rights revenue but also the EUR 96M sponsorship line, which is ProLeague's largest and fastest-growing revenue source. A candidate who connects the fan development investment to sponsorship retention, rather than viewing it solely through the streaming lens, demonstrates exceptional commercial judgment. Additionally, suggests creative formats for reaching young audiences: esports tie-ins, social-first short-form content for TikTok and YouTube Shorts, grassroots youth leagues, or interactive second-screen experiences during matches.
Question 4Synthesis
Prompt: "The commissioner has a board meeting tomorrow morning. In two minutes, what is your recommendation?"
Hint · Synthesis
Answer first: the recommendation, two or three reasons with numbers, then risks and next steps.
What the interviewer is looking forShow guidanceHide guidance
Look for a clear, committed recommendation supported by structured reasoning. Penalize vague "it depends" answers that avoid taking a position. The best answers acknowledge risks explicitly rather than hedging the recommendation itself.
Good: Recommends Offer C with clear financial reasoning — it delivers the highest expected payout at EUR 451M versus EUR 430M for DAZN and EUR 425M for broadcast. Mentions the Next Gen investment as a supporting initiative.
Strong: Frames the rationale in three layers: (1) financial: highest risk-adjusted value at EUR 451M with a guaranteed floor of EUR 415M even if all clauses trigger; (2) strategic: preserves broadcast reach for the existing 45-and-older fan base while building streaming capability and audience data; (3) optionality: a successful hybrid deal creates competitive tension between broadcasters and streamers for the next negotiation, strengthening the league's future leverage.
Excellent: Delivers a structured four-part recommendation:
- Sign Offer C at EUR 95M/year hybrid. It delivers the best risk-adjusted return, maintains broadcast reach, and limits downside exposure to the Amazon portion only.
- Negotiate two contract modifications. First, a ratchet clause that increases Amazon's payment if viewership exceeds 350K, creating upside sharing. Second, a data-sharing provision ensuring the league owns all viewer analytics from Amazon's platform.
- Launch a Next Gen program at EUR 12-15M/year, co-funded with Amazon, focused on social-native content and grassroots youth engagement. This is insurance for the streaming component and protection for the EUR 96M sponsorship base.
- Begin preparing for the 2032 negotiation now. Use the hybrid period to build direct-to-consumer data and a proprietary streaming capability through a league app, creating a credible threat to go direct-to-consumer in the next cycle.
Acknowledges the key risk: if streaming viewership growth declines below 15% due to demographic headwinds, the Years 3-5 full payout on the Amazon portion is not guaranteed. The mitigant is the Next Gen program combined with potential renegotiation if viewership significantly exceeds targets early.
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